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Chart Analysis - TLT

Summary:
TLT (iShares 10-20Yr Treasury bond fund) - in long term uptrend with large corrections and in sideways congestion last few months. Since December 2011 it is both sideways and contraction. Now I think it is at a point where it rinsed and outrun patience of enough traders to start a move. The annotated chart below would make above summary more clear.

Now would the move and direction as analyzed will happen? I don't know and probably will be more of interest to analysts and newsletters. As trader what interests me is -- do I have a high probability, high reward and low risk position? I find this chart meets those requirements if it happens in next 2 days.

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