A Trader Journal

Prior analysis for EURUSD along with my reasoning for long scenario are available here.

Best way to understand the follow up is to approach from this premise i.e., find low risk zones, manage to profitable outcome basing on what market has done and stay away from reward predictions or what market should do next.

EurUsd Analysis - Jan 20 2012

Longs who entered in the zone after waiting for market to rinse early longs and shorts should have good R:R in their position now. The question is what's next?

Market is in a place where one can make a case for both bulls and bears (but without low risk) and that is not a good thing. For bearish view,  market in down trend on daily chart scale and it pays to follow trend. But flip side, trend is extended with 5+ pullbacks without deep correction. For bullish view, market completed first part of diabolic sequence (i.e., trap early reversal longs) using strong support zone (visible better on weekly chart) as base and 2nd part typical for bigger with trend moves is pending i.e., rinse longs that came in after trap or eager shorts who want to follow down trend. But flip side, the position is fighting trend.

Given above, my sense is to be satisfied with good R:R from longs i.e., cash out good part around 1.295 area with a tight stop on the rest (like around 1.283 area). Then wait for a low risk short zone and leave high risk zones to experts/advanced players.