A Trader Journal

Change yourself, change your trading.

Wall Street Currents - for better trading

My original plan was to post a study on Time Diversification like the previous study posts. Actually I think this post will provide more value.  I will try to get the study out on next weekend post.

Today's post covers an important topic that is often glossed over but critical. IMO a good part of trading involves knowing the environment we are in, context around the trade and making quality decisions. Now all these three factors depend (besides psychology) a lot on quality of data available to us and the time spent on analysisThis is one reason many of us spend a large part of time shifting through lot of data.

Problem is there is so much information on net and most of it is not that good. So we end up spending most of our precious time either on finding information (or) shifting through available information to find nuggets in haystack. This actually hurts our trading in multiple ways like cutting into time available for analysis to understand the environment & context, getting influenced by useless stuff while searching for nuggets etc.

I got tired of this i.e., going to multiple sites inefficiently and shifting through to keep myself updated on what's happening with markets, what is driving, what is the mood, various experts perspectives (more better if the perspectives contradict ours) etc. Also the linear nature of newsreaders are more annoying than useful.

So I created some tools for my own use a while back. My experience and the feedback I got was it is very useful and convenient. So I decided to convert into a site and share it with others. You will see the site is clean i.e., no ads or selling of services etc. The ReadMe page on the site describes how I use it to get an idea of environment, context and answer to other questions listed on the site.

If you find the site useful for your trading/investing then please share it with others. I would not have found some blogs included in the site currently without sharing first. Also if you are tech savvy and would like to contribute then please let me know. I have some technical questions.


Note to email based subscribers...

It looks like last couple of posts were not completely included in the email for email based subscribers. For example, "Study: Strategy diversification" has much more content along with graph then what was included in the email. I suspect the problem is with RSS feed settings. I will fix it tonight. Thanks again for subscribing to ATraderJournal blog.

Study: Strategy diversification

Often when people think of diversification, the primary consideration is asset diversification. One challenge with asset diversification is in recent years most assets are highly correlated. I think there are low hanging fruit available to traders like strategy and time diversification which are more robust in providing diversification, are simple and compliment well any asset diversification.

Study: Swing trading performance by Trend Regime

This study is about measuring performance of swing trading setup by trend direction and strength. The later part is bit tricky. The problem is standard indicators like ADX, ROC, Z-Score etc are not pure trend strength indicators. They implicitly include the effects of market volatility.

Probably that may be ok for regular trading but for this test my desire is to isolate the trend regime impact on swing trading performance and measure it. So for the test I leveraged a trend indicator (ATS) based off my proprietary work in past. 

Study: Swing trading performance by Volatility regime

Different market regimes favor different types of strategies. Some regimes favor trend following strategies while other regimes favor mean reversion strategies. Similarly some market regimes favor growth strategies whereas other regimes favor value based strategies. Similarly some regimes favor following crowd while other regimes favor going against crowd. Also within each regime the performance of strategies varies.

I think knowing systematically what kind of market regime we are in and what type of strategies will be favored and by how much will be extremely helpful on several fronts. 

Following tables has the results of a mean reversion strategy categorized by different levels (deciles) of market volatility for 3 markets - SPY, QQQ, DIA. (1990 - July 2012).
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