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Follow up - TLT trade management

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Prior analysis for TLT is available in here. Now that TLT made a +1R (where R = initial risk) move, I see three potential trade management approaches to this trade.


Trade Management Approach-1:
Move the position stop to break even. Sell half @ 1R profit (which should have been triggered today) If not then hopefully it will go there again tomorrow. Key is moving position to break even so that position becomes a free rider.

Trade Management Approach-2:
Move position to break even. Don't sell any yet. Let entire trade run. In short, take out the risk and make full position a free rider.

Trade Management Approach-3:
Don't do any thing yet. Give wiggle room for the market to work.

Now which trade management approach do I take? 
If I know what market will do next then that would be fairly easy. Since I don't know, I am going to chose suitable trade management approach via a process of elimination 
  • What I know right NOW is - market is in a range, there are two resistances in front of it and today's up move is weak. It already failed to go up once (prior swing) and if it fails again then I am not comfortable keeping the risk i.e., waiting around and hoping third time is the charm. Also this is not early stages of a trend. So approach-3 is out.
  • Right now I know market is still in uptrend longer term and I would like to participate in the trend for higher R return. Both approach-1 and 2 would satisfy this requirement. But there are two resistances in front and market is near Dec 2008 peak. So the move to new highs may still happen but not good enough reason to stay without any pay for from the trade for the work and risk I have taken. So approach-2 is out. 
  • So my choice is approach-1 i.e., sell half @ +1R and move stop on other to break even and trail via a stop. 
Wow this became much bigger post than I thought. Thanks for reading so far. On a side note, I don't do this much analysis consciously in actual trading and also trade management approach is selected much earlier i.e., before entry.

How would you analyze TLT and if you had taken trade how would you manage this trade? Feel free to point out any errors you see in above analysis.

Chart Analysis - TLT

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Summary:
TLT (iShares 10-20Yr Treasury bond fund) - in long term uptrend with large corrections and in sideways congestion last few months. Since December 2011 it is both sideways and contraction. Now I think it is at a point where it rinsed and outrun patience of enough traders to start a move. The annotated chart below would make above summary more clear.

Now would the move and direction as analyzed will happen? I don't know and probably will be more of interest to analysts and newsletters. As trader what interests me is -- do I have a high probability, high reward and low risk position? I find this chart meets those requirements if it happens in next 2 days.

How many tricks can you identify?

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Following is an edited image from a signal service provider advertising its performance. Just for fun, how many tricks can you identify that are being played? I notice three tricks.

My interest is more in the puzzle aspect. So edited the image to remove page resemblance and name of the site.

Who in the world am I? Ah, that's the great puzzle - Lewis Caroll

Chart Analysis - EURUSD

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Current analysis for EURUSD currency pair. Analysis is on the chart itself. Will see how it behaves next couple of weeks.

Keep your goals secret?

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Common advice is to share your goals with others so that it increases your accountability and commitment. Looks like recent research suggests that sharing your goals might have precisely the opposite effect. Instead of increasing the commitment, sharing appears to reduce it. Part of the reason seems to be publicly committing creates similar effect to fantasizing about reaching those goals and the illusion of progress when there was no progress.

More details: ”Why you should keep your goals secret“. 

Goals are dreams with deadlines.
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