A Trader Journal

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Trading & Behavioral Economics - The last mile nudge

Now a days there is a lot of information available on the net about trading - techniques, psychology, money management etc. Yet most people lose in markets. One can write it off saying it is due to trader psychology or discipline etc. After watching to below presentation (19 mins), it feels may be partly it is a "last mile" problem and a good nudge that influences trader at subconscious level to cross the last mile might make a big difference.

I think one last mile problem for struggling traders is respecting and focusing on risk even though they know intellectually very well that big part of trading is managing risk. Another last mile problem could be having patience while entering or sitting with or exiting positions.

For example when you started trading and came across a new opportunity, what did you used to investigate first? - potential risk or potential reward? Now what do you investigate first? If there is a change in your focus order, what was the nudge?

One nudge that often pushes an individual trader to start respecting & focusing on risk at subconscious level would be blowing up an account. I think this applies to entities as well. For example, would JP Morgan be more prudent with risk for next few years? Is the blowing up multiple billion dollars by London whale be a good nudge? How about other banks? Would recent JP Morgan losses serve as a nudge to them as well? It seems often the nudges come in the form of pain.

Different traders likely will have different last mile problems. Also trading is a journey and not a destination. So the last mile problems likely change as a trader evolves and also as the market regime changes.

I am curious to hear your opinions on
  (a) What are the other last mile problems for traders? and 
  (b) Effective nudge(s) to influence trader at subconscious level to cross that last mile?

Talk Summary:
MacArthur winner Sendhil Mullainathan uses the lens of behavioral economics to study a tricky set of social problems -- those we know how to solve, but don't. Just like in trading, we know how to reduce child deaths due to diarrhea, how to prevent diabetes-related blindness, implement solar-cell technology ... yet somehow, we don't or can't. Why?



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