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Short - IWV - Part2

Both IVW and IWV bounced from the resistance zone couple of days back providing low risk entry point for shorts. If interested, first post has my analysis, resistance zones and reasons to consider shorts. It took nearly a month for these ETFs to reach the resistance zones. I guess I under-estimated the time factor.

As I mentioned in that post, given these two markets are tightly correlated, there is no point taking short on both trades. Often as traders we run into this situation i.e., we get entries for multiple shorts and we need to pick one. My reasons for picking IWV short are - (a) Tighter resistance band and (b) Weaker relative strength. Who knows, IVW might turn out to be better short but we never know future. We have to work with present.

So what's next?
Given the sharp drop plus the fact it is now at short term swing point (blue dash line on chart), I think IWV might stall or bounce in next couple of days. Given quick 1R+ gain, my preference is to take profit on part of the position tomorrow and move stop on the remaining position to entry point (i.e., break even stop as marked on the chart). 

So if this minor resistance (blue dash line on chart) holds and IWV bounces back, we will still be in a good place i.e., we already pocketed some profits and remaining position is not at risk. (Past Example: See TLT long trade post. There stock came back few days later and stopped out rest of the position). Another reason, taking partial profit here will also help ride any noise without much stress. (Example: See SLX trade posts. SLX had lot of noise after first target which was also faced minor resistance like here.).



Now instead of bouncing, if the minor resistance fails, then the next strong resistance is near blue solid line on chart. Should that happen we have 2nd part of the position to participate in the gains. (Past Examples: See EURUSD long trade posts. Another example is on-going SLX short trade. That one now chugging towards target-2).

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